During June, several product strategies have caught my eye. Here are some ideas and viewpoints about three strategies: Oracle, Microsoft, and Linux on the desktop.

Oracle

FUD (the strategy of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) is in the news again with the chief fudder, Larry Ellison setting the standard for new ways to extend the art. Reportedly, Ellison has said he will kill off the PeopleSoft product line after he completes the acquisition. I’d bet against it. The press has treated this hostile bid as one more in a long history of extravagant claims moves. But wait; perhaps Ellison really sees the future.

Why does he say he would discontinue PeopleSoft applications? It makes PeopleSoft's customers think twice about investing and it potentially derails PeopleSoft's planned acquisition of J. D. Edwards. That acquisition would arguably increase PeopleSoft’s competitive threat to Oracle. Since business is about creating value, this is a suspicious act at best, and probably makes no sense, other than to damage PeopleSoft if the expected acquisition fails. It seems that the odds are that the value balance between Oracle and PeopleSoft will tip in Oracle's favor through this audacious act, if the acquisition goes through or not.

Ellison has a long history of 'firing for affect' and then after a disruption has occurred, just letting the idea fade. He has done this with his hype about immediate mass roll out of the Information Superhighway and Network Computers; both positioned as the seeds of Microsoft’s demise. While many claim that this was noise, it looks as if these visions are coming true although Oracle isn’t at the center of their implementation.

It’s hard to separate FUD from sincere vision, and since the press doesn’t like Larry Ellison, his messages are viewed as coming from his ulterior motives rather than vision. FUD is an effective strategy, but it doesn't work unless you deliver on some of the visions. FUD is an ego-stroking strategy when you are holding the power.

Attacking Microsoft

A common theme from the recent ProjectWorld and the CRM conferences in Boston is that the ‘in’ way for software businesses to compete with Microsoft is to build simple to install products using open systems. This was true about PSNext in my last column, and was a key point of the presentation of ACCPAC at the CRM conference.

The way people are approaching this is to use Internet Explorer as a universal client. Think about the ease of migrating a user to a new PC if the only software they need is a web browser. Now think about migrating Outlook data, installing Office and your other specialty apps. That complexity and cost makes browser-based applications attractive. Internet Explorer plus a wireless network to connect to your office (since you don't have a copy of the data on your computer) may be cheaper  than buying, installing, and maintaining all the other software. And a wireless connection to your office gives you this minute’s data.

The Microsoft architecture is too complicated; smart people tend to make complicated things. In the natural order of evolution it’s time for someone to come along with a simpler thing and knock Microsoft off their pedestal. A combination of a web browser, Java, J2EE, open source, and a lot of smart people using those tools and not-loving Microsoft will eventually cause a loss of position for Microsoft… eventually.

Desktop Linux – This Year is Different

Three years ago I loaded Linux desktop on one of my old PCs and was frustrated with not being able to get the sound or modem to work. The office apps had strange interfaces and after a few hours of play, I reformatted the hard disk and took that machine back to Windows.

Two Days ago I loaded a $40 version of SuSE Linux 8.2 on that same machine (a HP Pavilion 4536 with a 400 MHz Celeron and 256 Meg of ram). I used the default installation, spending about 20 minutes of my time on a setup that took an hour or so to complete. Everything worked first try except the network card which took two tries to install (that card is also fussy under Windows and requires periodic re-installation).

I wrote this column using OpenOffice 1.0.2 and it is so much like MS office anyone could use it. While there are differences, the only thing that I have to learn is to recognize task bar icons. While in two days I used very few features, this morning I demonstrated an answer for my wife’s question about tables for her to use with MS Word at her office; the work processing app is similar enough to demo feature concepts. I like the OpenOffice drawing tool much more than Microsoft's.

There is a learning curve, but for reasonable users, its close enough you might take a look. The apps and the OS in this package cost $40. Together, Windows XP Pro and Office Pro are over $700. How many desktops do you have? We have six. That’s a lot of money.

I believe that the Linux Open Source strategy has a chance. I'm not ready (or yet able) to remove Windows from my main machine, but this will defer my Office and Windows upgrades. If someone had told me that the Linux installation would be that easy or OpenOffice that compatible, I probably would not have believed them. Impressive.

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